Four Stock Factors With Decades of Evidence Behind Them
One dollar bet on the US stock market's premium over cash since 1926 grew to about 770 dollars. One dollar bet on the small-stock premium over that same
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The AI ETF Report Card: Eight Years of Grades, Fees Included
The ETF where an AI picks the stocks has trailed the S&P 500 by five points a year since 2017. The funds that buy AI stocks got a different grade. Both
AIThe Fulfillment Curve: Why "Rich" Is an Infinite Loop and "Enough" Is the Exit Condition
Vicki Robin solved the scope creep problem that bankrupts financial plans. The variable "Rich" is undefined. The variable "Enough" has a precise value — and it is lower than you think.
Deep diveThe Hidden Cost of a Stock Joining the S&P 500
Between the day Tesla was announced for the S&P 500 and the day it was actually added, its split-adjusted price rose about 59 percent, and the index funds
Index InvestingThe Four Channels a Rate Hike Uses to Reach Your Portfolio
The Fed raised rates in seven separate campaigns since 1980, and the S&P 500 rose across every single one. The reflex says rates up, stocks down. The
MarketsThe Upskilling Trap: Why Your Raise Might Be Making You Less Free
Getting a 30% raise feels like progress. The math shows it is regression — unless you simultaneously increase your savings rate. Here is the precise mechanism.
Deep diveThe Engineering Proof of the 4% Rule: Lyapunov Stability for Retirement Withdrawals
Treat a retirement portfolio as a control system and Lyapunov's stability theorem shows when a withdrawal rate is stable, why 4% works, and why 8% runs out of money half the time.
RetirementLump Sum Beats Dollar-Cost Averaging Seven Times Out of Ten
You inherit 60,000 dollars. Put it in the market today, or feed it in over a year? I tested both across 1,853 monthly windows of S&P 500 history, and
FoundationsEmerging Markets Promised Higher Returns for Thirty Years
Emerging economies grew several times faster than the rich world for two decades. The people who bought their stocks did not collect several times the
Index InvestingThe Hedonic Treadmill: Why Spending More Never Gets You Ahead
Your brain is a homeostatic control system. Every lifestyle upgrade is a step input that the system cancels. Here is the feedback loop — and how to exit it.
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