What the CAPE Ratio Predicts Over the Next Ten Years
One valuation reading sat near the top of its range before the 1929 crash, again before the 2000 dot-com collapse, and again through the 2010s while the
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Your $350k Total Comp Is a Vanity Metric — Here's What Actually Measures Wealth
High income is throughput. Wealth is accumulation. The link between the two is not automatic — and the data proves it.
Deep diveAnnual, Quarterly, or Threshold Rebalancing, and What the Data Prefers
Leave a 60/40 portfolio alone for 46 years and it stops being a 60/40 portfolio. It quietly becomes a 95 percent stock portfolio, carrying far more risk
Asset AllocationThe Real Cost of a Luxury Car
A new Audi A7 loses $40,702 of its value in five years. A new Honda Accord loses $8,654. Both figures come from the same study of the same used-car
EngineeringThe Real Cost of Raising a Child
The most-cited number for raising a child in America is $233,610. It comes from a real government report, and it stopped being current a decade ago.
Life EventsHow to Invest Small Amounts of Money, and Why Spending Less Is Half the Engine
You do not need a lump sum to start. $50 a month becomes about $61k in 30 years; $500 becomes about $610k. The deposit is the one lever you fully control — and raising it moves more than chasing returns ever will.
FoundationsYou Are Trading a Non-Renewable Asset for a Renewable One — And Losing Every Time
Seneca identified the core asset misallocation problem 2,000 years ago. Modern engineers replicate it daily.
Deep diveHow Much Should You Bet When You Have an Edge?
There is a formula that tells you exactly how much of your money to put at risk, it has been public since 1956, and almost nobody should use the number it
AdvancedSavings Account vs. Investing: Where Compound Interest Actually Shows Up
A high-yield savings account and a diversified index fund both compound. Feed each the same $500 a month for 35 years and one ends at $251k and the other at $901k. The gap is the whole argument.
FoundationsThe 2022 Bond Crash, and the Duration Arithmetic That Caused It
In 2022 a 10-year US Treasury lost about 15 percent. That is the worst calendar year for the safest asset in the portfolio since at least 1928, and it was
Inflation & Fixed Income